Now that the economy and labor market has started to (weakly) recover, does this mean that it's back to business as usual for rewards professionals?  The short answer, in my opinion, is no.

Not that we won't be performing many of the same activities that we have for years, but ongoing trends, along with the devastating impact of the 2008-2009 recession, have combined to create the perfect storm for potential change in the ways we look at base pay management, variable pay, and qualitative or non-financial rewards.

Just as many economists feel the recession has led to some fundamental changes in consumer behavior, I believe that some fundamental changes in in the way that various forms of rewards are utilized are already underway.  For instance, a report done by Hewitt last year, predicted that over the next decade variable pay budgets will continue to rise (to 16% of payroll, up from about 12% today and half that back in the early 90s), while base pay increase or "merit" budgets will continue downward, from close to 4% prior to the recession, to about 2.5% to 3.0% today, and to about 2% in 2020. While no one knows if these specific numbers will hold up 10 years out, I believe they have nailed the general trends with their predictions.

Over the next decade employers will continue to endure painful benefits costs increases (healthcare reform or not, medical costs are rising out of control), crowding out potential spending on other rewards programs, especially for base pay increases.

Base pay is destined to be a serious pinch point for both employers and employees, as companies strive to keep fixed cost increases moderate, while employees lament the lack of pay growth. Between the long-term shift towards more variable pay, the cost squeeze created by ever-increasing healthcare costs, and the weak labor market (and predicted to be weak for some time), base pay has no where to go except barely up. Some pundits also see a change coming in the way merit pay is doled out.  For instance, see "Paying it Forward:Ideas Beyond the Traditional Merit Matrix" by Ann Bares via the Compensation Cafe.

To augment the lack of excitement at the base pay level, many savvy employers are paying more attention to qualitative rewards, i.e., rewards that are not based on monetary payouts, but more focused on addressing other "higher order" needs (in Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs), such as building a culture of appreciation and recognition, offering greater opportunities for training and skill development, offering greater work schedule flexibility and other work-life fit options, and in enhancing the overall culture of the organization in ways that are more employee friendly.

There are not going to be a lot of fixed dollars to throw around in the next few years, and so it will be incumbent on organizations and rewards professionals to make better and more creative uses of the various rewards alternatives available to them.  Motivating and retaining workers has never been "just about the money," but that concept will prove to be even more relevant in the 2010s.

Doug Sayed is principal at Applied HR Strategies, a Seattle area compensation consultancy, and lead author of the StrategicPay Series Base Pay Toolkit, a guide for helping non-compensation experts to develop their own strategic compensation programs.  Doug is a Certified Compensation Professional (CCP) with over 25 years of HR and compensation experience, and a Master's degree in HR management from The Ohio State University.

Thank you to my "guest posters" for sitting in while I was away!  I'm back, but will have a few more guest posts, because so many colleagues were nice enough to contribute.  Getting back to my own work though, temporarily at least, the following post is a from my recent post at the Compensation Cafe.

The days of near-guaranteed base pay increases and growing employer contributions to ever-increasing benefits costs are slowly (but surely) dwindling.

No, base pay isn't going away, nor are periodic pay increases, but the battle against the growth in fixed compensation costs (base pay, health care costs, etc.) is gaining strength, even as the economic recovery starts to take hold.

Most employers are willing to pay out increased compensation, but today much of those pay increase budget dollars are going into variable pay, which typically flexes with organizational performance and ability to pay. The trend toward increased variable pay has been going on for two decades, but it seems to have hit a "tipping point" in recent years, as organizations struggle to absorb a never-ending battle with health care cost increases (crowding out merit budgets in the process), while trying to get more "bang for their buck" with their compensation dollars.

While organizations try to keep a lid on fixed costs, more enlightened employers realize that there's more to the "attract, motivate and retain" equation than just base pay and benefit dollars. But before going on, let's look at some general reward trends over the last few decades, and how we ended up where we are at today.

• The 1970's and 1980's: plain-vanilla base pay and benefits; defined benefit (DB) pension plans were common in larger, manufacturing and/or unionized organizations. Variable pay is confined largely to executives and sometimes middle management.
• The 1990's: many employers add variable pay (or push variable pay into lower levels of the organization) and other reward elements into the mix, such as stock option programs. Many employers freeze or eliminate DB pension programs and retiree medical as just too costly to maintain. Health care cost sharing is increasingly pushed down to employees. The 401(K) is the new pension program.
• The 2000's: a greater movement towards "total rewards," including variable pay for the masses and a greater recognition of the need to pay more attention to qualitative vs. purely quantitative (dollar dominated) rewards. Employers continue efforts to contain fixed costs, especially in the form of sharing increased health care costs with the employee base.
• The 2010's: as we enter a new decade, we see a greater focus on comprehensive or "holistic" rewards, including a movement away from purely quantitative rewards to qualitative and work-life rewards. Qualitative rewards include career/job growth and development opportunities, increased focus on organization culture and communication, work flexibility options, work-life "fit"options, and  creating a culture of appreciation/recognition.

Decades ago, Herzberg's work on motivation and job enrichment theorized that that pay is a more of a "satisfier" (it can meet basic needs and satisfy, but cannot make employees "happy" about their employment).  Confirming this, many studies have shown that pay is generally not the reason employees leave organizations (unless pay is noticeably below what's available in the relevant labor market); it was considered more of a "hygiene" (in Herzberg's terminology) or satisfaction factor. I believe this is an accurate characterization of base pay's role in job satisfaction, even today.

In reality, it's how managers treat and manage their staff, and how leaders lead their organizations that has the greatest impact on retention, job satisfaction and the propensity to turnover.  This is where rewards are headed; not just dollars (there are so few to spread around these days), but with qualitative or psychological rewards that can help to engage and retain employees (or to dis-engage and repel workers when not provided, or provided poorly or disingenuously).

Qualitative or psychological rewards focus more on genuine management/leadership, honest communication and regard for employees; building a culture of respect and appreciation, providing honest and constructive performance feedback, offering career and professional development opportunities, offering work flexibility and work-life balance fit options.

With the limited merit budgets of today and (predicted) for the future, there is just not enough "oomph" in the dollars that employers can offer to assist too much with the critical ideal of "attract, motivate and retain." Variable pay will help, but most of the rest will have to come from other types of rewards.

It's time to start thinking beyond dollars...


Doug Sayed is principal at Applied HR Strategies, a Seattle-area compensation consultancy and author of the StrategicPay Series Base Pay Toolkit, and hands-on, "do-it-yourself" (DIY) guide to developing a strategic market-based compensation program, complete with dozens of pre-built tools and templates, ready for use.

Pay increases in 2009 were at an all-time low, at least since good records have been kept on this type of data. In 2009, over 50% of companies either froze pay or worse, by far the highest pay pull-back/retrenchment numbers I have seen in my 25+ year career in HR and compensation.

2010 portends to be a bit better for employees, but employers are still keeping a pretty tight clamp on their purse strings, and understandably so, with economic recovery still looking a bit tepid.  Predictions are for pay increase budgets of about 2.7% in 2010, a vast improvement compared to an average 1.8% increase in 2009, by far the lowest year on record. Both of these data points are from a recently released Hewitt report.

Variable pay budgets (budgets for incentive or "bonus" programs) are expected to remain stable at about 12% for 2010. While the 2010 variable pay budgets are about in line with 2008 and 2009, the long-term trend has seen a slow but steady upward march, and we at the StrategicPay Series expect that trend to continue.  In 1990, corporate variable pay budgets were about 5% of payroll, and today they are more than double that, while merit pay budgets have been at historically low levels since the 2001 recession. 

Hewitt expects variable pay budgets to slowly continue upwards.  In a study released in the spring of 2009, Hewitt predicted  an average variable pay budget of 16% of payroll and a base pay increase pay budget of 2.0% in 2020.

While, of course, no one knows what's going to happen 10 years into the future, the predicted trends are clear: continued pressure on fixed-cost compensation increases (i.e. base pay), combined with a continued willingness to pay for performance, in the form of variable pay.  We agree.

Note: this is an updated version of my recent Compensation Cafe Post.

Amid all of the talk about motivation and incentives in the past few months, as HR and compensation influencers, we need pay attention to what we're paying for, why we are paying it (are we getting what we think we're paying for?), and in communicating this information throughout our organizations.

In their classic book "Pay People Right," Zingheim and Schuster argue that base pay should be pay for ongoing value, not for results. Each person brings to work their unique set of education/training, skills, experiences and talents, and base pay is to compensate for use the of skills and abilities that employees bring to work every day.

Zingheim and Schuster go on to say that variable pay (typically in the form of short-term cash incentives) should be used as pay for results. Using their model, we can use base pay to pay for what I call the employee's "toolkit" (all those skills, abilities, etc.), while reserving variable pay for the actual results achieved via a combination of the employee's abilities and efforts.

Although employee efforts are a key component of achieving desired outcomes, efforts do not always equal results, and so we should separate them from each other in terms of pay and rewards.

Efforts are critical though, especially those "discretionary efforts" that we as HR and rewards professionals seek out, and thus, while we probably shouldn't pay for them per se, we certainly can recognize, applaud and occasionally even celebrate these "above and beyond" efforts.

In the book "17 Rules for Successful Companies Use to Attract and Keep Top Talent" author David Russo states ("Rule #6") "applaud effort; reward contribution" and I couldn't agree more.  Efforts are critical, and worthy of recognition and applause, but not of pay per se.

If we pay for effort alone, in the absence of tangible results, we run the risk of creating rewards confusion (especially for those who actually achieve intended results) and possibly of mis-placed rewards expectations and/or feelings of entitlement ("I busted my butt on that project...").

Of course, we need to be clear and transparent about what we pay for and why; what base pay is for, and what variable pay/incentives reward. If we don't do that, many of our pay related programmatic efforts will be waisted, because people will not understand what they are paid for and how they can improve their own personal rewards system.

Doug Sayed is principal at Applied HR Strategies, a Seattle area compensation consultancy and author of the StrategicPay Series Base Pay Toolkit, a hands-on, "do-it-yourself" (DIY) guide to developing a strategic market-based compensation program, complete with dozens of pre-built tools and templates, ready for use.

Good riddance to 2009! It's onto 2010 and beyond...

For many of us, the second half of 2008 and most of 2009 was like a bad bad dream that was all too real: massive layoffs/job losses (over 6 million) and skimpy (or no) pay increases for those that survived the crunch; terrible business conditions and plummeting sales and profits (if you were lucky enough to have profits!); tapped out consumers and losses on real estate and retirement holdings, to name a just few fond memories of the past 18 months.

Indeed, let's move on. Here's a brief summary of the current outlook for 2010 for us HR and compensation professionals, with links to additional information.

Employment and Hiring

The most recent national employment data is encouraging, and indicates we are in a bottoming phase, if not getting ready for a slight rebound in early 2010 (don't expect a barn-burner turnaround anytime soon).  Job losses in November 2009 were only 11,000 nationally, which is by far the lowest total in well over a year. The U.S. unemployment rate dropped from 10.2% to 10.0%, and 36 states reported slight to moderate drops in their unemployment rates for November as well.

The recently released Manpower Employment Outlook Survey also reveals some encouraging trends and data.  While 12% of employers expect a decrease in employment in the 1st quarter of 2010, an equal percentage expect an increase.  While this may seem less than inspiring news, when the data is seasonally adjusted for typical seasonal employment patterns, there is a net 6% increase in expected hiring over historical employment trends for the 1st quarter.

When compared to a year ago, employers in the Western U.S. are the most confident, but all areas show improved employment outlooks. Using the seasonally adjusted data, all regions anticipate moderate quarter-over-quarter increases in employment levels.

Bottom line, the outlook is from flat to improving in the first quarter, depending on who you ask, but compared to the past 18 months, this is a huge improvement, and should provide encouragement to job seekers and businesses alike.

For more information on the labor market, see my recent post at the Compensation Cafe.

Base Pay Compensation Trends

While merit budgets for 2010 will be near to historical lows (2.5% to 3.0% in most studies we've reviewed), at least there will be pay increase budgets for the vast majority of employers, unlike late in 2008 and in 2009. (See earlier posts from this blog for more specific information).

2009 merit budgets (most commonly implemented in late 2008 or in the first quarter of 2009) were slashed or eliminated by large numbers of employers.  Depending on the study, 25% or more of employers had 0% pay increase budgets for 2009, and many actually cut pay.  Well over three-quarters of all employers reduced their original planned merit budgets for 2009, but we do not think we will see anything close this type of wholesale budget-slashing in 2010.  Recently completed studies (Mercer, Hewitt, Culpepper, etc.) suggest only about 10% of employers are planning 0% budgets or pay reductions for 2010, and we expect these percentages to drop further, assuming the nascent recovery continues.

Incentive Compensation Trends

Incentive compensation/variable pay budgets (but not necessarily payouts) are holding strong, despite the weak economy and labor markets.  Variable pay is getting more and more ingrained into the foundation of compensation plans in the U.S. (and internationally too, just more  slowly than here). Hewitt, who does a major survey of variable pay trends each year, reports that variable pay budgets dropped a very modest 0.2% (from 12% of payroll to 11.8%) in their latest research on the topic.

Despite this minor drop, the long-term trend toward increased variable pay budgets remains intact.

Executive Compensation in 2010

Executive compensation is the fastest moving target in the world of compensation.  From rapidly evolving reporting and disclosure requirements, to increased government intervention in executive pay, to shareholder activism concerning perceived excesses in executive compensation, it's been a wild past few years for anyone who follows this topic, and the pace of change isn't likely to slow down anytime soon.

The changes are so numerous (and in some instance convoluted) that we won't even attempt to describe them here, but here are a few thoughts as to where we are likely heading:

• New and increased executive compensation disclosure requirements for public companies (see "A Holiday Present from the SEC - New Proxy Disclosure Rules!"  from our friend William Parsons at CompWiser).
• Greater intervention/intrusion by the Federal Government into the executive compensation arena in general (already a very heavily regulated area).
• A greater focus on pay/performance linkages and increased transparency for executive compensation plans.
• An expectaion from various stakeholders (shareholders, unions, shareholder advisory groups, etc.) to see reduced excesses in executive compensation (expensive perquisites, tax gross-ups, huge "parachute" payouts, etc.).  This is already starting to happen, but this one has a ways to go still.

Longer-Term Compensation and Related Trends

• Continued historically low merit budgets. Don't expect a surge back to more normalized merit budgets, even after the labor market gets back to a more healthy supply/demand balance. Some are predicting a long period of historically low merit budgets, and we largely agree, as we see a greater willingness of companies to invest in variable pay than increasing their fixed costs via base pay increases.
• An on-going upward bias towards increasing variable pay budgets, in lieu of larger merit budget pools.
• Pay for performance (real pay for performance) will continue to increase in prevalence and intensity, and will become the the new "merit pay."  Only this time, it will be delivered via various incentive vehicles, rather than via a slight up-tick the annual base pay increase. Follow our friend Paul Hebert at Incentive Intelligence for daily lessons on all things incentive and motivation related.
• Taking better care of people psychologically (not just financially) will become more in vogue, and for good reason: most people desire more feedback and appreciation, and respond positively to it. Increased communication and various forms of recognition can help to build and maintain a healthier workplace. To get you thinking more about recognition and related concepts, see "12 Gifts for Cash-Short, Recession-Weary Workplaces" and "All I Want for Christmas" plus two recent recognition postings here at the StrategicPay Blog from our friend Theresa Chambers at Recognition Works.

Well that's about it for now.  Hopefully you haven't fallen asleep while reading this. We at the StrategicPay Series will continue to keep you informed of the latest information, thoughts and research in 2010.

Until then, here is wishing everyone a happy and safe New Years, and great start to 2010!!

Another major salary budget survey (this one from Hewitt Associates)  is out and it shows that merit and variable pay budgets have largely stabilized for 2010. With the economy (but not the labor market yet) on the mend, it's likely that these numbers will approximate what we will actually see in 2010.

Projections made in 2007 for 2008, and again in 2008 for 2009, turned out to be completely off the mark, mostly because few saw the recession (or or its strength) coming. But barring another swoon, merit projections have largely stabilized and are now looking like they will hold in 2010, for the most part.  Thanks to our friend Ann Bares at the Compensation Force blog for lending us her graphic.

As you can see, compared to projections made months earlier, it looks like most employer budgets are headed for the 2.5% range +/- based on this sample of over 500 companies, mostly larger employers.

Variable pay budgets have held up fairly well too, with companies budgeting 11.2% of payroll for variable compensation for salaried exempt workers, down somewhat from 11.7% in the earlier study done by Hewitt. Other employment groups were virtually unchanged from the previous survey.

Despite the slight drop in variable pay budgets, the longer-term trend for variable pay has been steadily up, increasing from 6.4% in 1994 to 11.2% in 2010 for exempt workers.

Another encouraging trend is that far fewer employers are planning to freeze salaries in 2010, 17%, down from nearly half (48%) in 2009.  Our guess is that if the economy continues to stabilize and slowly improve, the prevalence of salary freezes will drop even further.   In addition 0% of companies in the study were planning salary reductions for 2010, vs. 10% in previous earlier survey earlier this year.

Hewitt predicts, and we agree, that merit budgets will remain constrained for some time, as employers put more emphasis on variable/incentive pay, and as employers continue to struggle with rapidly rising employee benefits costs, primarily in health care.

One of my favorite HR/compensation bloggers is Paul Hebert of the Incentive Intelligence blog and "i2i - A Validation & Incentive Planning Consultancy."

Paul has posted one of his classic rants, this time about an incentive program myths article posted on the American Express website (that's right - the credit card company).

Paul's post is certainly worth a read if you happen work with incentive programs, or hope to some day, since there certainly are a lot of myths about them, such as that they boost morale (not! - usually), or that they show the employer is generous by offering incentive compensation (ha!).

Happy reading and ranting!