The StrategicPay Series authors and selected expert guest presenters are offering several intensive half-day workshops for HR and compensation professionals/managers. For certified professionals, HRCI credit is pending for the upcoming events.

The cost of each session is $295, but there is a $50 discount (per session!) for those signing up for two or more. In addition, participants receive a coupon code for 20% off on the purchase of the Base Pay Toolkit, worth half cost of attending alone!

Compensation, Rewards & Employee Engagement Trends - 2010 and Beyond

With Doug Sayed, and Theresa Chambers of Recognition Works

Note: approved for 3.5 hours of HRCI credits!

Date: May 13th, 2010 8:00 AM
Location: Bellevue Harbor Club
Cost: $295.00

Register for this Event

Organizations are struggling to keep up with changes in salary and compensation trends. As the economy recovers, what is the future of pay and employment? What can employers do to retain and re-engage talented employees? In this half-day session, participants will explore 1) the latest compensation trends and future rewards thinking and 2) the elements of a successful employee engagement and recognition strategy. Participants will take away low-cost tools, ideas and resources to build a culture of appreciation within their teams and organizations. Workshop instructors include StrategicPay Series creator, Doug Sayed and Chief Motivation Officer, Theresa Chambers of Recognition Works. The program will be held at the Harbor Club in Bellevue from 8am to noon. The program includes a continental breakfast, parking validation, as well as a discount coupon to purchase the Base Pay Toolkit worth one-half the tuition cost alone.


Utilizing Market Data & Conducting a Competitive Pay Analysis

Note: approved for 3.5 hours of HRCI credits!
Date: June 10th, 2010  8:00 AM
Location: Bellevue Harbor Club
Cost: $295.00

Register for this Event

This half-day program will focus on how to conduct a market-based pay analysis, including selecting and using pay data sources, grading jobs into a salary structure and evaluating how the company measures up.  This is an advanced, in-depth course.  Participants will walk away with a working knowledge of the subject matter, as well as
the tools and templates to execute in their company.  The cost includes a continental breakfast and parking validation, as well as a discount coupon to purchase the Base Pay Toolkit worth one-half the tuition cost alone.
 

Compensation Trends & Salary Planning

Note: HRCI credits anticipated. We will apply for them as the date gets closer
Date: September 23rd, 2010 08:00 AM
Location: Bellevue Harbor Club
Cost: $295.00

Register for this Event

This program will provide an update on current market trends, including merit increase budgets, salary structure movement, etc., and instruction on salary planning, budgeting and merit plan design.  Participants will walk away with a good picture of the current market conditions and several ideas for merit plan design, as well as the tools and templates to develop, model and implement in their companies.  The cost includes a continental breakfast and parking validation, as well as a discount coupon to purchase the Base Pay Toolkit worth one-half the tuition cost alone.

Pay increases in 2009 were at an all-time low, at least since good records have been kept on this type of data. In 2009, over 50% of companies either froze pay or worse, by far the highest pay pull-back/retrenchment numbers I have seen in my 25+ year career in HR and compensation.

2010 portends to be a bit better for employees, but employers are still keeping a pretty tight clamp on their purse strings, and understandably so, with economic recovery still looking a bit tepid.  Predictions are for pay increase budgets of about 2.7% in 2010, a vast improvement compared to an average 1.8% increase in 2009, by far the lowest year on record. Both of these data points are from a recently released Hewitt report.

Variable pay budgets (budgets for incentive or "bonus" programs) are expected to remain stable at about 12% for 2010. While the 2010 variable pay budgets are about in line with 2008 and 2009, the long-term trend has seen a slow but steady upward march, and we at the StrategicPay Series expect that trend to continue.  In 1990, corporate variable pay budgets were about 5% of payroll, and today they are more than double that, while merit pay budgets have been at historically low levels since the 2001 recession. 

Hewitt expects variable pay budgets to slowly continue upwards.  In a study released in the spring of 2009, Hewitt predicted  an average variable pay budget of 16% of payroll and a base pay increase pay budget of 2.0% in 2020.

While, of course, no one knows what's going to happen 10 years into the future, the predicted trends are clear: continued pressure on fixed-cost compensation increases (i.e. base pay), combined with a continued willingness to pay for performance, in the form of variable pay.  We agree.

Good riddance to 2009! It's onto 2010 and beyond...

For many of us, the second half of 2008 and most of 2009 was like a bad bad dream that was all too real: massive layoffs/job losses (over 6 million) and skimpy (or no) pay increases for those that survived the crunch; terrible business conditions and plummeting sales and profits (if you were lucky enough to have profits!); tapped out consumers and losses on real estate and retirement holdings, to name a just few fond memories of the past 18 months.

Indeed, let's move on. Here's a brief summary of the current outlook for 2010 for us HR and compensation professionals, with links to additional information.

Employment and Hiring

The most recent national employment data is encouraging, and indicates we are in a bottoming phase, if not getting ready for a slight rebound in early 2010 (don't expect a barn-burner turnaround anytime soon).  Job losses in November 2009 were only 11,000 nationally, which is by far the lowest total in well over a year. The U.S. unemployment rate dropped from 10.2% to 10.0%, and 36 states reported slight to moderate drops in their unemployment rates for November as well.

The recently released Manpower Employment Outlook Survey also reveals some encouraging trends and data.  While 12% of employers expect a decrease in employment in the 1st quarter of 2010, an equal percentage expect an increase.  While this may seem less than inspiring news, when the data is seasonally adjusted for typical seasonal employment patterns, there is a net 6% increase in expected hiring over historical employment trends for the 1st quarter.

When compared to a year ago, employers in the Western U.S. are the most confident, but all areas show improved employment outlooks. Using the seasonally adjusted data, all regions anticipate moderate quarter-over-quarter increases in employment levels.

Bottom line, the outlook is from flat to improving in the first quarter, depending on who you ask, but compared to the past 18 months, this is a huge improvement, and should provide encouragement to job seekers and businesses alike.

For more information on the labor market, see my recent post at the Compensation Cafe.

Base Pay Compensation Trends

While merit budgets for 2010 will be near to historical lows (2.5% to 3.0% in most studies we've reviewed), at least there will be pay increase budgets for the vast majority of employers, unlike late in 2008 and in 2009. (See earlier posts from this blog for more specific information).

2009 merit budgets (most commonly implemented in late 2008 or in the first quarter of 2009) were slashed or eliminated by large numbers of employers.  Depending on the study, 25% or more of employers had 0% pay increase budgets for 2009, and many actually cut pay.  Well over three-quarters of all employers reduced their original planned merit budgets for 2009, but we do not think we will see anything close this type of wholesale budget-slashing in 2010.  Recently completed studies (Mercer, Hewitt, Culpepper, etc.) suggest only about 10% of employers are planning 0% budgets or pay reductions for 2010, and we expect these percentages to drop further, assuming the nascent recovery continues.

Incentive Compensation Trends

Incentive compensation/variable pay budgets (but not necessarily payouts) are holding strong, despite the weak economy and labor markets.  Variable pay is getting more and more ingrained into the foundation of compensation plans in the U.S. (and internationally too, just more  slowly than here). Hewitt, who does a major survey of variable pay trends each year, reports that variable pay budgets dropped a very modest 0.2% (from 12% of payroll to 11.8%) in their latest research on the topic.

Despite this minor drop, the long-term trend toward increased variable pay budgets remains intact.

Executive Compensation in 2010

Executive compensation is the fastest moving target in the world of compensation.  From rapidly evolving reporting and disclosure requirements, to increased government intervention in executive pay, to shareholder activism concerning perceived excesses in executive compensation, it's been a wild past few years for anyone who follows this topic, and the pace of change isn't likely to slow down anytime soon.

The changes are so numerous (and in some instance convoluted) that we won't even attempt to describe them here, but here are a few thoughts as to where we are likely heading:

• New and increased executive compensation disclosure requirements for public companies (see "A Holiday Present from the SEC - New Proxy Disclosure Rules!"  from our friend William Parsons at CompWiser).
• Greater intervention/intrusion by the Federal Government into the executive compensation arena in general (already a very heavily regulated area).
• A greater focus on pay/performance linkages and increased transparency for executive compensation plans.
• An expectaion from various stakeholders (shareholders, unions, shareholder advisory groups, etc.) to see reduced excesses in executive compensation (expensive perquisites, tax gross-ups, huge "parachute" payouts, etc.).  This is already starting to happen, but this one has a ways to go still.

Longer-Term Compensation and Related Trends

• Continued historically low merit budgets. Don't expect a surge back to more normalized merit budgets, even after the labor market gets back to a more healthy supply/demand balance. Some are predicting a long period of historically low merit budgets, and we largely agree, as we see a greater willingness of companies to invest in variable pay than increasing their fixed costs via base pay increases.
• An on-going upward bias towards increasing variable pay budgets, in lieu of larger merit budget pools.
• Pay for performance (real pay for performance) will continue to increase in prevalence and intensity, and will become the the new "merit pay."  Only this time, it will be delivered via various incentive vehicles, rather than via a slight up-tick the annual base pay increase. Follow our friend Paul Hebert at Incentive Intelligence for daily lessons on all things incentive and motivation related.
• Taking better care of people psychologically (not just financially) will become more in vogue, and for good reason: most people desire more feedback and appreciation, and respond positively to it. Increased communication and various forms of recognition can help to build and maintain a healthier workplace. To get you thinking more about recognition and related concepts, see "12 Gifts for Cash-Short, Recession-Weary Workplaces" and "All I Want for Christmas" plus two recent recognition postings here at the StrategicPay Blog from our friend Theresa Chambers at Recognition Works.

Well that's about it for now.  Hopefully you haven't fallen asleep while reading this. We at the StrategicPay Series will continue to keep you informed of the latest information, thoughts and research in 2010.

Until then, here is wishing everyone a happy and safe New Years, and great start to 2010!!

As an occasional writer/blogger for the Compensation Cafe, I must say that I'm really impressed with the content that comes from my fellow writing/blogging colleagues.  Since a lot of innovative thinking and informative writing comes from this exceptional group, I thought I would pass on links to a few of my favorite posts from the past several weeks, for your reading pleasure and edification.

• Retaining Your Top Talent, by Darcy Dees
• Talking with Employees About The Cost of Living, by Margaret O'Hanlon
• The State of Pay for Performance, The Future of Salary Increases, by Ann Bares
• Coffee's for Closers (on the state of incentive pay and "merit" increases), by Laura Schroeder
• Can't You Just Convert the Currency? by Chuck Csizmar
• 7 Keys to Designing a Sales Comp Plan That Delivers, by Becky Regan
• Engagement & Turnover in the Recovery, by Doug Sayed

Subscribe to the Compensation Cafe to receive daily content from this team of compensation pros, who also happen to be excellent writers.

In the past year and a half, compensation trends and practices have undergone the most rapid shifts in my 25+ years in the field. In late 2008 the sky was falling, as were merit budgets, and the stock market too. At the same time executive pay freezes and layoffs were taking off, and not in a good way.

A year later, the economy, while far from healthy, has stabilized and slowly started to improve.

Watson Wyatt has done an admirable job of tracking HR and compensation trends over this remarkable period. Every two months they have surveyed large groups of employers to capture the latest trends and practices of import to HR and compensation professionals. Their latest survey, "Effect of the Economic Crisis on HR Programs" (October 2009) has just been published, and below is a brief overview of some key data points. Follow the link above for the full report summary.

Employers are finally beginning to loosen the strings on the large number of salary freezes, executive pay freezes and/or cuts, and even beginning to reverse some of the cuts and freezes that were imposed during the highly uncertain times in late 2008.

For instance, of the companies that had implemented salary freezes:

• 54% say they plan to eliminate the pay freeze in the next six months
• a further 24% plan to eliminate the pay freeze in the next 12 months

Of companies that have implemented salary reductions, over 75% say they will reverse those in the next 12 months.

All of this is good news for employees and employers (less uncertainty; greater confidence). Furthermore, over 90% of responding employers have made employment offers in the past three months, and over 90% anticipate doing so in the next few months as well.  These are all good signs for the recovery, but real employment growth is likely still a ways off.

All the news is not good though, as about one-fifth of employers still anticipate making layoffs in late 2009 or in 2010. This is hardly the data you would typically see in a solid economic rebound, but we believe that these percentages will decline in the months ahead.

Despite the weak labor market, almost two-thirds (65%) of employers report that they are concerned about the retention of critical skilled employees. (For a detailed discussion on this topic, request an article from StrategicPay Series manager, Doug Sayed, at doug@StrategicPaySeries.com).

Clearly, the worst is over, but we are not fully in the clear yet. The economic recovery is fragile, and many employers have yet to find their footing.

Some of my fellow bloggers at the Compensation Cafe' have been writing recently on how to address the issue of today's small merit budgets with employees and managers.  Here are a few links to help you with these issues:

• 10 Things Your Managers Must Tell Employees about Your Teeny, Tiny Merit Budget by Margaret O'Hanlon
• 10 Tools for Communicating a Teeny, Tiny Merit Increase Budget, by Margaret O'Hanlon
• Despite Pay Dissatisfaction, Most Employees Expect to Maintain Current Level of Benefits in 2010, by Becky Regan
• Show Your Creativity as a Rewards Professional, by Doug Sayed

In addition, I would add a few other key thoughts, such as:

• Job Titles: Are They Really Free? by Ann Bares
• Food for Thought: Pay for Performance Obsolete?, by Darcy Dees
• Agility. The New Reward Watchword, by Ann Bares via Compensation Force

So, while there may be a shortage of funds available for organizations to distribute, there is no shortage of ideas and creative strategies for addressing today's challenges.  If there was ever a time to show your worth as an HR and/or compensation professional, now would be it!

The future isn't looking too good for the typical wage earner in America these days. Not surprisingly, wage growth is quite slow right now, but there is also no foreseeable impetus to increase that growth any time soon, unless you're lucky enough to be in a few selected high demand roles (such as for skilled health-care workers and selected technical professionals).

Not only is the labor market in the worst shape in decades, we likely haven't hit bottom yet.  In addition, nearly all economists are predicting a painfully slow jobs recovery over the next few years.  Of the millions of jobs lost in this recession, the concern among many labor market pundits is that a good chunk of these jobs may never come back (i.e., many of the manufacturing job losses), and of the ones that do, the recovery will be several years in the making.

Back to wage growth though, here's the current situation relative to the pre-recession period: in the first half of 2007, wages were growing at a healthy 3.7% annualized rate. In the first half of 2009, wages increased at a 1.3% annualized rate, and that may well go down as the labor market continues to deteriorate (labor market conditions generally lag overall economic trends, so even though we've hit bottom overall, according to most economists, the labor market probably hasn't yet).

The current (August) national unemployment is at 9.7%, and is expected to bottom in the 10%+ range sometime early next year.  That's the good news. IHS Global Insight is predicting that in 2014, the unemployment rate will average 7.6%, which is still well above the unemployment rate before the recession started in late 2007.  The predicted molasses-paced recovery will have a major impact on wage growth in the U.S. for the next few years at the least.

Labor market dynamics are a complex brew of many factors, but at its core is the same "supply and demand" that you learned in Econ 101. With labor current market supply quite high and demand very low (and expected to stay weak for the next few years, due to the slow economic growth being projected), the the case for a strong rebound in wages is not in the cards, barring a much more robust recovery than expected.

It is likely that wage growth could be stuck in the 1.5% to 2.5% range for years, or roughly one-half to two-thirds of historical wage growth.

If this predicted scenario plays out, the implications for the typical American wage earner will be profound. It will also have a large impact on employers, who rely on economic growth to fund their pay-for-performance programs.  For some ideas on how to address these issues, see fellow Compensation Cafe' blogger Margaret O'Hanlon's recent post on dealing with "tiny" merit budgets, and my earlier post on using your  professional creativity in these lean times.

Doug Sayed, SPHR, CCP is founder of Applied HR Strategies Inc., a Seattle area strategic compensation consultancy, and lead author of the StrategicPay Series "Base Pay Toolkit."

2010 Salary Planning Roundup

Many thanks to my blogging partner at the Compensation Cafe, Ann Barnes, who also has her own blog called Compensation Force, for letting me post her excellent summary of the most recent salary planning data for 2010. 

From Compensation Force:

As has become a tradition of sorts here, I have compiled the high level 2010 salary planning data from a number of the most well-known sources and am presenting it here ... for your reading pleasure.

The table below features research on average salary increases (both actual 2009 and projected 2010) from the salary planning surveys published by Watson Wyatt, WorldatWork and Hewitt, organized by employee group.

More information to follow, as more data comes in. Happy Planning!

Preliminary results from Culpepper's annual survey of salary budgets reveal that global base salary increase budgets have risen by an average of 51 percent from 1.89% in 2009 to 2.85% in 2010 (see below for U.S. data). The survey was conducted from late June through mid August, 2009.

Key Findings from the study:

• The number of companies freezing salaries is projected to decline from 37 percent in 2009 to 13 percent in 2010.
• Excluding salary freezes (companies projecting a 0% increase), global base salary increase budgets are projected to increase slightly from 3.18% in 2009 to 3.27% in 2010.
• Base salary increases in the U.S. are projected to increase from 1.63% in 2009 to 2.65% in 2010. Excluding organizations projecting a 0% increase budget, salary increases in the U.S. are projected to hold relatively steady from 3.08% in 2009 to 3.07% in 2010.
• Base salary increases in Canada are projected to increase from 1.13% in 2009 to 2.38% in 2010. Excluding freezes, salary increases in Canada are projected to increase slightly from 2.95% in 2009 to 3.02% in 2010.
• Base salary range structure increases are projected to increase from 1.18% in 2009 to 1.61% in 2010. Excluding freezes, salary range structure increases are projected to decline slightly from 2.84% in 2009 to 2.70% in 2010.
• Additional breakouts and data for over 80 additional countries will be published in the final report, available September 2, 2009.

Salary increase budgets have changed dramatically over the past year. In August 2008, before the global economic crisis unfolded, average base salary increases exceeded four percent (Figure 1) and only two percent of companies were freezing salaries (Figure 2). From late 2008 through mid-2009, the number of companies freezing salaries increased to 37 percent, which drove average base salary increases below two percent.

Overall, projections for 2010 have improved significantly compared to 2009. However, a relatively high number of companies plan to freeze salaries in 2010, and average projected base salary increases are still much lower than recent years.

Data Source: Culpepper Trends Survey of 714 participating organizations reporting salary increase data.

Availability of Final Results:
A comprehensive report with final results and analysis from our recent survey, 2009-2010 Salary Budget & Planning Survey, will be available by September 2, 2009. The final comprehensive report will include data breakouts for the U.S. and Canada by job function/level, number of employees, and industry sector. Additional breakouts will be available for 90 countries and 16 international geographic regions.

Source: Culpepper Trends Surveys, August 2009, www.culpepper.com.

Full disclosure: Culpepper is a strategic partner of the StrategicPay Series.

On August 25th (9am Pacific Time, 12pm Eastern) WorldatWork will offer a FREE webinar outlining the results of their recently-released 2009-2010 Salary Budget Survey (SBS).  You must be a WorldatWork member to attend for free.

If you're not a WorldatWork member, you can obtain a copy of the SBS for $235 at this link.

This is essential information for all HR and compensation professionals involved in compensation budgeting and planning. Hopefully you can either attend the webinar and/or purchase the survey itself.

Either way, follow this blog for more information on salary budget and related trends.